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Amirkhanian, S N and Baker, N J (1992) Expert System for Equipment Selection for Earth‐Moving Operations. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 118(02), 318–31.

Bernold, L E and Chang, P (1992) Potential Gains through Welded‐Wire Fabric Reinforcement. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 118(02), 244–57.

Diekmann, J E and Kim, M P (1992) SuperChange: Expert System for Analysis of Changes Claims. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 118(02), 399–411.

Dilger, W H, Tadros, G S and Giannelia, P (1992) Method Proposed for Construction of Multispan Cable‐Stayed Bridges. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 118(02), 273–82.

Federle, M O and Maloney, W F (1992) Substitutes for Leadership and Unionized Construction Carpenters. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 118(02), 332–48.

Hulme, T W and Burchell, A J (1992) Bored Tunneling for Singapore Metro. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 118(02), 363–84.

Kangari, R, Farid, F and Elgharib, H M (1992) Financial Performance Analysis for Construction Industry. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 118(02), 349–61.

Nam, C H and Tatum, C B (1992) Noncontractual Methods of Integration on Construction Projects. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 118(02), 385–98.

Nicholls, R (1992) Construction of Grout‐Impregnated Fabric‐Reinforced Pipes. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 118(02), 283–302.

Paek, J H, Lee, Y W and Napier, T R (1992) Selection of Design/Build Proposal Using Fuzzy‐Logic System. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 118(02), 303–17.

Tiong, R L K (1992) Strategies in Risk Management of On‐Demand Guarantees. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 118(02), 229–43.

Tiong, R L K, Yeo, K and McCarthy, S C (1992) Critical Success Factors in Winning BOT Contracts. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 118(02), 217–28.

Touran, A and Wiser, E P (1992) Monte Carlo Technique with Correlated Random Variables. Journal of Construction Engineering and Management, 118(02), 258–72.

  • Type: Journal Article
  • Keywords: Construction costs; Cost analysis; Monte Carlo method; Random variables; Statistics; Correlation;
  • ISBN/ISSN: 0733-9364
  • URL: https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)0733-9364(1992)118:2(258)
  • Abstract:
    In this paper the impact of correlation among cost components on the total cost variance of a construction project is analyzed. The Monte Carlo simulation approach for project risk analysis is reviewed and the problems with implementing this technique is described. Specifically, issues related to the type of the underlying cost distributions and existing correlations between cost items are explored. One suggested methodology for generating correlated random numbers in a simulation environment is reviewed. A multivariate lognormal distribution is used to generate correlated random numbers for various construction cost components. A large, real‐life data set is used to show the implementation of the suggested method and the results of the analysis are analyzed. It is shown that the proposed method is capable of predicting the variance of the total cost with good accuracy. Some guidelines for future research in this area are presented.